EFCA: Remember the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act?

The inauguration is coming...the inauguration is coming....

Will the Employee Free Choice Act be right behind it? That's the question I am asked almost daily by companies trying to develop a Labor Communications Strategy to communicate their position to employees and train supervisors & managers on just what the Employee Free Choice Act is all about.

Unfortunately, trying to predict when, exactly, the EFCA shoe will drop is like predicting the weather - and it changes hourly. I just received two emails from trusted sources that are 180 degrees apart.

So, I'm going to meet them in the middle. I don't know when Obama will have time to go to the bathroom, must less do anything that's not directly involved with saving the world after January 20th. From Iraq to Gaza to Healthcare to taxes to scandals to appointments ( & appointments with scandals) to the mortgage crisis to quitting smoking. The man will be busy... but the unions want payback and I'm quite sure they will get it in some form other.

I think there are a few factors that may help Obama with timing. The EFCA bill will come when it comes. In the meantime, AFL-CIO president John Sweeney's term expires this year and he's not seeking re-election. Who will be his replacement? Rumor has it that a bunch of the presidents of the AFL-CIO's largest member unions are meeting in Washington later this week to discuss where the labor movement is going (mission, priorities and such) and who should run it (AFL-CIO). Then that other house of cards--The Change to Win Coalition can't seem to keep it's illustrious leader, Andy Stern, out of the news (and it's not good news). Six months ago I would have pegged him as the golden boy to replace Sweeney, but now I can't imagine they'd want that kind of notoriety.

It does beg the question, "Should the AFL-CIO and Change to Win merge back into one big family in order to give the appearance of having their collective act together?" This is where Obama and the EFCA may stall for a few months, while the 2 labor giants clean up their own houses or even merge into one to create the illusion of speaking with one voice as they try to pass the most dangerous piece of legislation for U.S. business since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act 1930. (Don't remember Smoot-Hawley? In a nutshell, it raised U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods to record levels... 1,028 economists signed a petition against this legislation... no one would listen & it passed anyway... countries retaliated with increased tariffs on U.S. goods... American exports and imports plunged by more than half... the Great Depression followed... ).

So when will the EFCA pass and in what form? Who knows? Even those far closer to the legislation than I am can't seem to predict. The important thing is to take advantage of the time you have now to create your company's Labor Communication Strategy and implement it. After all, it's long been said that those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.